The hottest crude oil was increased by fuel 4650,

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Crude oil has been confirmed by the 4650 first-line breakthrough of rising fuel oil

with the decline of the US dollar index, the international commodity market has been booming. The us light crude oil delivered in November has returned to the top edge of the consolidation range since May, and is eager to make an upward breakthrough. In the domestic commodity market, Shanghai Fuel Oil Co., Ltd., whose trading volume remained low, increased by more than 300 yuan/ton in the days after the National Day holiday. After breaking through the technical suppression level of 4650, the oil price has reached the highest level of 4800 yuan/ton in five months. We believe that whether Shanghai fuel oil can hold on to the rising results and form a new price range in the future will mainly depend on the following two factors:

first, under the background of loose monetary policy, oil prices will be strongly supported

according to the data released on Tuesday by SpendingPulse, a data research institution under MasterCard, As of October 8, the average daily demand for retail gasoline in the United States fell by 0.7%, or 63000 barrels, compared with the previous week, but increased by 0.1%, or 6000 barrels, to 9.012 million barrels, compared with the same period of the previous year. As of the week ended October 1, the average daily demand for retail gasoline in the United States was 9.075 million barrels, and the four week moving average demand fell by 1.2% year-on-year. We believe that such data is in line with market expectations. After the summer consumption season, the market demand for refined oil shows a downward trend

the energy information agency under the US Department of energy is scheduled to release the crude oil storage data for the week ending October 14 on October 16, which is delayed by one day due to Columbus Day. The market expects the crude oil inventory of the current week to decrease slightly. In combination with a series of recently released crude oil consumption data, the supply and demand pattern in the international energy market seems tepid. A Reuters survey shows that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will agree to maintain the oil production target unchanged, so as to continue to maintain an oil policy that has kept the oil price within its target range of $70 to $80 per barrel for more than a year. Therefore, the situation of the crude oil consumption market is not as eye-catching as that of the international crude oil price. The current round of oil price is "rising" under the background of loose monetary policy

since the US dollar index rebounded to 83.56 on August 24, the index began a rapid correction after a short period of sideways trading. The dollar index is moving towards its lowest level since the end of 2009. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan played an important role in this round of quantitative easing. First, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly lowered the benchmark interest rate and said it would take decisive action to curb the rise of the yen. The release of the minutes of the September meeting of the Federal Reserve (FED) pushed market expectations to a climax. The minutes of the meeting on September 21 showed that many participants believed that if the unemployment rate continued to be too high or prices were too low, the Federal Reserve should further introduce loose monetary policy. Investors speculated that the next round of quantitative easing policy adopted by the Federal Reserve would include a large-scale asset purchase plan. The Fed's attitude is in sharp contrast to the actions of the European Central Bank (ECB). Out of concern about the stability of the euro, the European Central Bank plans to withdraw the quantitative easing funds provided, and calls on central banks to reduce other forms of support measures as soon as possible, and do not delay raising interest rates. Between this and that, the US dollar index went down, and speculative funds established short positions on a large scale. According to the data of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the net short position in US dollars increased to US $30billion in the week to October 5 from US $22billion in the week before the black knob was fully locked. The euro net long position increased to a one-year high of 48243, and the yen net long position increased to 49206

it is against this background that international bulk commodities, including crude oil, have opened a new round of rising market. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on the 13th that it would purchase about US $32billion of treasury bonds from October 15 to early November, and most of them will expire in the next four to six years. The dollar's decline will continue. From this perspective, the power to support the continued upward breakthrough of international oil prices remains strong

II. The spot price rose with the trend, and the rise of fuel oil still needs to be confirmed.

the rise of crude oil price has driven the price rise of a series of downstream products. The "spirit" of Shanghai fuel oil futures, which has been depressed for more than five months, is expected to form a new price range above the 4650 technical level. Judging from the quotation in the spot market, the spot price of 180CST in Singapore is currently reported at $477.93/t, and the transaction is light. The quotation of domestic 180CST fuel oil is about 4600 yuan/ton. The tracking of the cracking price difference shows that the Asian diesel cracking price difference has recently fallen below US $13/barrel. With the closing of the East-West arbitrage window, traders began to worry about the problem of oversupply. It is reported that mercuria has abandoned its plan to ship 60000 tons of diesel oil from South Korea to Britain on October 22. British BP also abandoned the similar cargo shipped on October 15. Shell has previously abandoned its plan to ship 80000 tons of diesel oil from Japan to the UK on October 10. Therefore, although strikes across Europe affect production, the price of oil products is not strong. In the domestic market, the futures inventory warehouse receipt released by the last stock exchange on the 14th showed that the total fuel oil inventory of the three delivery depots rose to 285900 tons. The above-mentioned signs have once again exposed the problem of weak demand for fuel oil through mergers and acquisitions. After continuous rising, we are cautious about the future rising space of Shanghai fuel oil market

to sum up, the rising trend of fuel oil in this round is mainly driven by the price of crude oil, and the renewed attention of funds has also become an important factor for bulls to maintain an optimistic attitude. However, as the consumer demand has not been awakened, the breakthrough of fuel oil on the 4650 front line still needs further technical confirmation, and the new rising space will be formed after the crude oil price reaches $85

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